Amazon, Google, Facebook, Apple: Marketing Guru Predicts Winners and Losers

In 15 minutes, Scott Galloway (clinical professor of marketing at the NYU Stern business school and founder of think tank L2) examines, analyzes and forecasts the future of what he calls “The Four Horsemen”: Amazon, Facebook, Google and Apple.

There’s a lot to digest in this talk, which could have easily run into a few hours. Galloway is succinct, to the point and offers compelling arguments for his prognostications during the DLD (or Digital-Life-Design) Conference in Munich.

In a nutshell, he says:

• Amazon will not be able to continue to operate a purely online retailer. It will either have to open brick and mortar operations. It will also have to buy or invest in the US Postal Service to control its escalating shipping costs.

• Facebook, despite reports that it’s not popular with the 18-34 demographic (it is), is still the juggernaut of social networking and has shored up its future with Instagram. The future is visually-rich mobile social media. It also tracks more consumers than Google. He also calls Facebook’s relationship with companies a “bait and switch” with their organic reach (or Facebook users who’ve seen their posts) of 6 percent. Their ad reps are telling marketers to assume that it’s virtually zero.

• Google’s attempt at a social network with Google+ is a failure. Apps are also chipping away at its business, with consumers who are looking to buy products going directly to Amazon, with Facebook and Twitter also taking away its share of search.

• Apple is on track to be the first company to be worth more than a trillion dollars. It is also transitioning into and displaying the characteristics of a luxury brand. Its recent hires from LVMH Moët Hennessy • Louis Vuitton S.A, Patrick Pruniaux (formerly of watch brand Tag Heuer) and Burberry, retail head Angela Ahrendts, are more proof of Apple shedding its legacy as a tech brand.

Via Daring Fireball. Photo by Hubert Burda Media/Flickr.